The passing of Kuwait’s Emir on 29 September in an American hospital came as a surprise to many. Up until the announcement of his death, the Kuwaiti media was claiming he was just “recovering” and “going through successful treatment”. In reality, the Emir had been clinically dead for almost two months, as JaFaj exclusively reported on 23 July, https://www.jafaj.net/kuwaits-ruler-is-clinically-dead-muslim-brotherhood-gets-stronger/ . The Emir died of natural causes.
The deliberate cover up of the late Emir’s critical health condition was driven by not only respect, but also fear. The fear of the then crown prince, now Emir of Kuwait, Nawaf AlAhmad AlSabah. Nawaf knows the Emir’s passing has only opened a Pandora’s Box for him. Instead of enjoying the fact that he is now the ruler of Kuwait, he is reported to be more consumed with worries than any passion there is.
Emir Nawaf Faces The Following Concerns:
First, the surge of Islamists and the Muslim Brotherhood group. Strong, connected and well-tolerated by the Kuwait government, the Muslim Brotherhood (MBK) has been seeking to expand their power in the oil rich country. The ill health of the former Emir and two decades of empowerment for the Brotherhood have driven their lust for power.
JaFaj’s Kuwait sources have confirmed the MBK’s simple aim: they want to keep the Emir as a strong figurehead while the group takes control of the Kuwait Parliament and get members appointed into the Kuwaiti government cabinet.
Originally, the MBK was hoping to make clear demands for a parliamentary government led by them, nonetheless, they have been advised by their Jordanian counterparts to “take things slow” and “weaken the Kuwaiti regime slowly but surely”.
Nawaf is aware of the MBK’s plan, nonetheless, he cannot face off to them as he uses them to pacify the Kuwaiti pubic which has grown very angry with the deteriorating economic condition, burden of personal loans and crude “in your face corruption” by Kuwaiti officials and members of the Kuwaiti ruling family.
Second, the threat Kuwait’s new Emir faces is a regional quick sand: with the Gulf region rapidly changing, UAE’s rulers and Saudi’s Crown Prince Mohammad Ben Salman are very hostile to both the Muslim Brotherhood and Iran. Kuwait has good ties to both, Iran and the Brotherhood. With an agile and strong Shiite minority in Kuwait, the Kuwaiti regime has adopted a policy of appeasing those to buy Iran’s support, or at least tolerance. With the anti-Iran push growing stronger and spearheaded by UAE, Kuwait is between a rock and a hard place. On one hand, either it joins the anti-Iran camp and turns itself into a legitimate target for the Iranian intelligence, or on the other hand, it keeps the status quo, which the UAE or Saudi Arabia will not accept.
Third, the concern is Kuwait’s deteriorating economic conditions. Despite trillions of dollars in oil wealth yielded over decades, corruption and graft are rampant in Kuwait. This has dried up the government’s budget to the point that the average Kuwaiti citizen is worrying about daily expenses and rent. The most provocative side of the ongoing public distress is loans owed by Kuwaitis to their government. Kuwaiti social media activists are constantly critical of their government giving away 100s of millions each year to Arab countries like Jordan and the Palestinian Authority, while at the same time denying a debt break for Kuwaiti citizens.
Conclusion: Despite the external and internal pressure, the new Emir is unlikely to change much of the status quo. He will keep tolerating the Muslim Brotherhood, refusing to cut ties with either Iran or Qatar, nor is he going to move forward with a peace agreement with Israel.
Kuwait’s ruling family has done very well under the status quo, and therefore, they are going to try to maintain it for as long as possible. On the other hand, it is safe to estimate that Kuwait will face serious and unprecedented forms of public pressure, which will open Kuwait up to all forms of foreign interference either by Iran or regional countries with interests in Kuwait. It will be an uphill battle for the new Emir, and sadly, he should expect the worst, unless he makes major changes. These changes must include empowerment of the strong Kuwaiti liberal/secular movement, cracking down on corruption and the gradual ending of the government’s ties to the Muslim Brotherhood.