1.Summary:
JaFaJ has learned that a very high-level meeting took place in the capital of an Arab Gulf state recently to discuss the future of Libya. The said meeting was so important in stature that members of Arab Royal families, as well as the directors of Arab intelligence agencies attended the meeting. The meeting was called by two Western powers reported to be the United States and the United Kingdom. The meeting was used to discuss how to change the current situation in Libya into one of unity and prosperity. Simply put, the meeting was used to discuss an alternative to the status quo. The main attendees of the meeting were the UAE, Israel, USA, UK, Bahrain, and Saudi Arabia.
2. What came as a surprise is the Egyptians absence from the high-level meeting. JaFaJ can confirm they were not exactly interested in the said meeting, nor were they invited. [COMMENT: Egypt has been a major player in Libya with solid communications between Egyptian President Sisi and the warlord controlling eastern Libya field Marshall Khalifa Haftar. Sisi serves as Haftar’s mentor, political patron and key weapons and intelligence supplier. Khalifa after has long been accused of being Sisi’s puppet. END COMMENT]
Who Wants What from Libya?
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3. Since the overthrow of Libya’s dictator Muammar Qaddafi in 2011, the country has been engulfed in a civil war supported by the wholesale theft of its oil wealth. The wealth has been divided between the Muslim Brotherhood-controlled Al Wifaq Government which controls Western Libya, and the Haftar government, which controls mainly the western parts of Libya. Libyans have been divided and frustrated by rivalry between warlords and political figureheads, to a point where many Libyans yearn for the old days of Qaddafi during which Libya was more stable and Libyan were much better off financially.
4. It is safe to say that Libyan politicians alone are not to blame for the country’s political failure. Several countries have been pulling the strings in Libya and therefore contributing to the current messy situation. The US Government (USG) is a key player, and the Obama administration played a major role in creating the unrest. As President, Obama empowered the Muslim Brotherhood-dominated Wifaq Government and fortified it by securing recognition for it from the United Nations. Obama’s policy was very similar to his Syrian policy: maintain the status quo, and when necessary, play all parties against one another.
5. American intelligence sources who specializes in North Africa have confirmed to JaFaJ that President Trump would have changed Libya had he had the time, or won a second term. “Nonetheless, he was busy with more pressing issues from the region, therefore it would have taken a second Trump term for him to get the time and space to work on Libya”. He added: “The fact that trump did have the time to look at Libya and the mess Obama had created behind there played into Russia’s hands, Russia developed a very close relationship with Field Marshal Khalifa Haftar who controls Western Libya, at the same time Russia introduced its own private security firm, Wagner, into Libya”. [COMMENT: The Wagner Group is a Russian paramilitary organization dubbed President Putin’s “private army for hire”, it includes a capable network of mercenaries and has proven to be very effective in carting out military operations. Their operations are backed by intelligence from the Russian state itself, they have been working with closely working with Haftar troops in Libya. END COMMENT]
6. An Arab Gulf official who serves in his country’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs where he oversee the North Africa division told JaFaJ that Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates are very concerned about the situation in Libya “we cannot afford to allow the Muslim Brotherhood to take another country, especially one with plenty of oil and resources, we had to do something, the world was not doing anything and we were not going to sit and watch, The United Arab Emirates is communicating with rivals to the Wifaq government, be it Haftar or Qaddafi the son.” The source added, “We would like to see Libya unified and stable with all tolerance for terrorists including both ISIS and the Muslim Brotherhood”.
Egypt Wants Its Own Puppet State in Libya
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7. Many other players are involved in Libya. One key player is Egypt’s President Sisi who has provided a lot of help to the Khalifa Haftar regime. Nonetheless the Egyptians seemed to have their own agenda. One key western intelligence officer who is a member of a European intelligence agency told JaFaj that “Egyptians are seeking to establish a puppet state in Libya, they don’t want to see an independent Libya, it’s either that they keep the status quo as is, or they control the future government, this way President Sisi reaps the benefits. What they eventually want is to install a puppet regime in Libya. For example, they share just enough intelligence information with Khalifa Haftar and his two eldest sons but would always stop from offering the right connections to the Haftar family, and on occasions the Egyptians would actually speak against them to Western and Arab officials”.
8. Another key player is Turkey’s President Erdogan. Erdogan has been supportive of the Muslim Brotherhood government in Tripoli and has sent his own troops and drones in to support them. This has proven very effective in targeting adversaries in Libya. Nonetheless, Erdogan himself is under pressure, and now is watching the Russian troops operating in Ukraine. While the entire political atmosphere of the region is shifting against Turkey, Erdogan has been making concessions and even establishing much closer ties to the United Arab Emirates who are spearheading Arab efforts to rid Libya from the Muslim Brotherhood and radical terrorist influence – with a focus being on Isis.
Status Quo Cannot be Maintained
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9.JaFaJ spoke to several intelligence sources in Washington DC, London, Jerusalem, and two major Arab Gulf capitals, and they appreared to agree that the status quo in Libya must change to minimize the threat to the world. A former British intelligence operative, who works privately in Libya, confided the following to JaFaJ “Libya has become a Muslim Brotherhood post on the Mediterranean. You can never trust the Wifaq government, and we all know they have direct connections to ISIS. They are dangerous and are controlling a population that they can easily radicalize. He added, “I am not sure who will become Libya’s leader, Qaddafi or Haftar, but either way the Tripoli government is a goner. The source concluded by saying “The Russians and the UAE don’t want it, and its main supporter, Erdogan is making his peace with UAE now”.
The US Defense Intelligence Agency Leading the Change
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10. A British individual who’s very close to an Arab Gulf state monarchy’s explained to JaFaJ that “after Ukraine is finalized, regardless of the outcome, focus is going to shift again to the Middle East, and change is expected in several countries, and one of them is Libya. He also confirmed that the Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) in the United States, has the most interest in Libya, and is driven by the CIA. The CIA has proven that it is a chronic failure in running Libya, let alone stabilizing it. He put it this way: “in Libya nobody trusts the CIA any longer because we’ve seen them openly support the Muslim Brotherhood and their taking over the country. The source added, “Even if they didn’t mean to purposely do this, it seems that they have failed each and every time. Just look at what they did to several Arab countries during the Arab Spring; nobody in the region wants to work with the CIA”.
The Search for A Leader, Qaddafi Wins, Haftar Loses
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11. With Turkey neutralized, the key foreign players in Libya have been looking for a leader who Libyans can rally behind and who will eventually unite Libyan soil and stabilize the country. Israel is involved and has one additional wish; to establish peace between the future Libya and extend the Abrahamic peace accord across North Africa. An American military officer serving in the US Navy told JaFaJ Intelligence Sources that “Libya could serve as the perfect hub for the US Navy in the Mediterranean, as well as a key operations ground for the entire region of North Africa. This cannot happen under the current situation, but we hope that we can look into this someday when the situation changes.”
12. JaFaJ has learned that after extended negotiations and an exchange between all parties involved, there is consensus to support Qaddafi’s eldest son Saiful Islam Qaddafi to become Libya’s next leader and unifier. Qaddafi junior is smart, Western educated and charismatic. The soft-spoken PhD holder represents Libyans nostalgia of the good old days when Gaddafi was in power, and the country was united and stable. Qaddafi also has the connections, the wealth and the good ties with the United Arab Emirates, Russia, and the United Kingdom intelligence agencies. He also has some indirect connections to Israel. An Israeli intelligence officer told JaFaJ: “Yes he has been keeping a backdoor open for us, just like every single ruler or aspiring politician in the Middle East, they all speak to us in secret, including the ones who claim to be most hostile to us”.
13. JaFaJ learned there was a rivalry between choices, and that the decision-makers were considering either Saif Al Islam Qaddafi or Khalifa Haftar’s son, Saddam Haftar. The latter being the American-grown son of the warlord who is very competitive and rather disciplined. One Western intelligence source has told JaFaJ that “We all agree that we must go with Qaddafi. The Haftars are a non-starter because Saddam has proven to be a huge disappointment”.
14. Sources close to the Israeli intelligence agencies have informed JafaJ that unlike their Western counterparts, the Israeli intelligence establishment was supportive of Saddam Haftar, not Qaddafi. He explained that at the beginning the Israelis saw Haftar as a much better alternative to Qaddafi because he doesn’t have vengeance or grudges, but Qaddafi would not be able to easily make the public shift towards Israel, switching to peace with Israel even though his dad spent his life claiming to want to liberate Palestine”. The source added that “Nonetheless, the establishment has chosen to agree with other powers to support Gaddafi over Saddam”. He explained “He [Saddam] made us do it, he did this to himself”.
Saddam Haftar’s Creates a Mess with Israelis
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15. JaFaJ Learned from senior American and Israeli intelligence sources and assets that Saddam has attempted to establish ties to the Israeli intelligence agencies over the past 12 months. They described his effort to work with the Israelis as “Disorganised, childish and chaotic. Saddam even went to people who were not working with the Mossad and asked for help – one was an American Israeli individual who does not hold any government job in Israel, but nonetheless presented himself to Haftar as a well-connected Mossad intelligence officer”. JaFaJ can confirm Haftar has held a meeting with the Mossad-wannabe and at the same time was foolishly ignoring real messages and messengers from the Israeli establishment. A senior Israeli intelligence source confirmed to JaFaJ, that after a struggle, Saddam even travelled to Israel to meet two security officers who are not working for the Mossad at all, and despite his short presence in Israel, Mossad officers were reluctant to speak to him. The source explained: “Despite his good intentions, Saddam seemed to be confused and all over the place and therefore could not be trusted”.
16. An Israeli source stressed that despite Saddam’s flaws, the establishment wanted to work with him at the beginning but was turned off by his unprofessional and amateurish approach of doing things. The source explained that after a lot of struggle the Israelis managed to set up an appointment for him with a senior military intelligence military officer who flew to meet Saddam in the Arab capital. Despite the significant exhibit by the Israeli agent, “Saddam went incommunicado right after the meeting”. The source added, “He disappeared, as simple as that, and at the same time began surfacing at other locations. We cannot trust someone with this type of ‘MO’ and we have to work with someone we can trust”. The source then went on to say that, “Qaddafi is way more professional and easier to predict. We have sent him our top agents, countless direct and indirect messages, and all we got from him was indifference. We cannot afford this in our troubled region. We cannot afford to wait for anything, and we sure won’t wait for Saddam to wake up and smell the roses”.
17. An European intelligence source reported to JaFaJ that, “The only ones who were willing to work with Saddam were the Israelis, and he turned them away. This means that you can put a fork in him, he is done, and that Libya is moving forward without him. It also means that there won’t be a place for the Haftar family or the Wifaq government, they are also baked. It’s clear that Qaddafi is the future and a very reasonable alternative to this mess, ask the Libyan people, they want the Qaddafi back”.
Conclusion
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18. The apparent weakness exhibited by the Biden administration has resulted in Russia’s growing influence in the region. With Russia already on the ground in Libya, it is natural that the status quo in Libya must come to an end. The key players are pushing for change and Qaddafi’s son is the man they have picked for the job. Nonetheless, this requires the dismantling of both his rival, the Haftar family and the Wifaq government. Ending the Haftar’s grip on Eastern Libya is easy because Haftar depends on support from Russia and UAE. Hence, the Haftar clan’s region is thrusting towards its end. Dissolving the Wifaq government will prove to be harder, but is still achievable because of the Biden administration weakness.