Saddam Haftar, Libya’s Next Leader?
The Biden Doctrine Towards Libya
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1-Trump’s loss at the elections in 2020 has created a lot of change around the world, including North Africa. While Trump did not have the chance to do much in Libya during his first term, JaFaJ sources commented on this observation by saying that “he had plans for it”.
2-A source close to Trump’s inner circle told JaFaJ that “Trump’s Libya plan was simple – he wanted the Muslim Brotherhood (MB) government out and a stable government in place to replace it”. The source added, “This is why Turkey got involved in Libya”. The source went on to say that “with help from the Europeans, Turkey’s troops were trying to secure Libya for the Muslim Brotherhood before Trump could make the time to kick them out”.
3-A Western intelligence source has opined to JaFaJ that “Biden’s policy towards Libya is not new, “it is actually Obama’s policy”. The source added that, “Biden wants to keep the status quo, with no change and continue to work both ends against the Middle”.
4-The source added that “The minute Biden got inaugurated, US policies in the Middle East and North Africa were switched back to Obama’s, making it safe to assume that the Biden administration will not encourage any form of final settlement in Libya but rather keeping the situation as it is”.
5-An intelligence source from an Arab Gulf state reported the following to JaFaJ: “We have worked hard and provided in-depth support and money hoping to keep the Muslim Brotherhood out of Libya. Sadly, we could not because an apparatus of Western countries supports them, but we cannot just let go. If we stop supporting Khalifa Haftar, the MB will be ruling all of Libya the next morning”.
Khalifa Haftar, A Very Strong Man, But…
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6-COMMENT: Field Marshal Khalifa Haftar, the commander of the Libyan National Army, is a very military capable man who is known for his iron fist in handling Islamist militias affiliated with the MB faction in Libya. The Eastern regions under his rule are considered stable and local governance is generally acceptable at those areas. Nonetheless, Haftar has been more a fantastic fighter rather than a politician, and much less a diplomat. Haftar has established himself as the provider of security for Libya but failed to manage or handle the ruthless defamation campaign against him by Libya’s MB and their affiliates. The said campaign has tainted Haftar’s image as “A ruthless killer”, even a “war criminal”, with sentimental accusations often used by the MB such as “UAE’s agent”, “America’s puppet” and even a “Kafir”
7-COMMENT: Haftar’s lack of public outreach is usually with servicemen in the Arab world. Being a fighter, not a talker, best describes his character. At 78, Haftar is more concerned with doing his job rather than standing before cameras. Nonetheless, this has resulted in severe damage to his image within Libya itself, particularly in areas under the MB’s government control. Rebuilding Haftar’s image and debunking the myths and lies spread about him by the MB could prove to be very hard to achieve and possibly less worth the investment given that Haftar will have to retire within a decade at best. Hence, it could be easier for Haftar to play the godfather role to a new Libya while a younger and more polished heir of his takes centre stage.
Saddam Haftar, Libya’s Knight in Shining Armor?
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8-COMMENT: Haftar’s son, Saddam, is considered a very strong and capable character, just like his father. Intelligent and fearless, he could unite Libya, and bring it into a new age. Nonetheless, Saddam’s image has been ruthlessly attacked by his father’s enemies who consider him to be a potential heir.
Saddam’s Image
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9-Saddam has been the subject of defamation campaigns by the MB and their apparatus of media links across the Middle East, including the Qatar-controlled media such as AlJazeera. Rumors of him being “violent like his father” are somewhat widely circulated by his enemies. Even worse are claims that he is abusive to his father’s men and friends of arms. A Western intelligence source reported to JaFaJ that “Saddam can be tough like his father, but he has never really done anything drastic beyond disciplining the ranks of his soldiers. Of course, the concept of discipline varies between cultures, he might be more on the tough side, but he is nothing like extreme, he is just a tough commander that’s all, think of a US Army drill sergeant”.
10-Like his father, Saddam does very little to counter the defamation campaign and the media attacks. He has never given an interview to the press, nor had he addressed the public. He keeps a minor social media presence in which he comes across as an average guy and not a politician. He also has never made any statements to debunk the false accusations against him. In such cases, keeping silent against defamation does send the signal to the public that the allegations may be true. Hence, a lot of the accusations and false claims made against Saddam and his father do seem to resonate with the public. Nonetheless they could be tackled easily.
11-To switch the paradigm, Saddam must launch a media campaign in which he reintroduces himself to the average Libyan and to the world. He must exhibit himself as a reformer, a peacemaker, and a tough warrior with no tolerance for terror and radicalism. He must appeal to the Libyan people with the messages of unity, peace, prosperity, and humbleness. At the same time, he must make his case with the region and world, with a focus on the West, as a fighter of terrorism who has risked his life to exterminate radicals in Libya.
12-One very notorious case which exhibit Saddam’s failure to tackle the media is that of Jordanian-Palestinian young woman, Abeer Ahmad Khalil. Born in Benghazi, she became famous as “the Benghazi Girl” last June, when Libyan thugs kidnapped her, raped her, and then made a video of them shaving her head. The case brought extreme outrage that echoed across the entire region. Social media controlled and operated by the MB played a major role in this by exhibiting Haftar’s rulership as weak and even claiming the thugs who did that to the girl were Haftar’s loyalists. Eventually, all four criminals were arrested but with no media coverage or action from Haftar or his government members. With rumours circulating that the rapists were released and not charged, Saddam Haftar could have capitalized on this opportunity to show how he would handle things by emphasizing that Libya under Haftar is a country of law and order. This is just one example of a “missed opportunity” and how weak Haftar’s handling of the media really is.
Biden Will Never Accept Saddam
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13-An American source has confirmed to JaFaJ that “Biden follows Obama’s policies on the Middle East, and (that) he would never do anything to change the status quo and of course would never prop up either Saddam or his father”. When asked “why,” he responded by saying that “Saddam could revive his father’s regime and eventually all of Libya, (and) this is not what the Biden administration wants”.
Saddam Needs New Allies
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14-So far, the Haftar family has been working hand in hand with the moderate forces in the Middle East, particularly the United Arab Emirates. Nonetheless, to unite and revive Libya, Saddam needs to find himself new Western allies. While his father’s ties to the Russians are generally good, the Russians are not considered “Westerners” in the eyes of the decision-makers in Washington DC, London, or Paris. Therefore, Saddam must find western allies to prop him up, clear his name, and provide serious presence on the ground in Libya as well as an advanced structure of intelligence services help and more advanced weaponry. The French do seem capable to play this role and have been yearning for more presence for them in the Mediterranean and Arab countries. Saddam must seek help from UAE and particularly crown prince Mohammad Ben Zayed in approaching the French president. At one point, Saddam should even make a visit to France to meet officials of the French Ministry of Defense. This step will not be easy to achieve and requires patience. It is still worth his time if he is thinking long-term for his country.
Saddam’s Life Is in Danger
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15-Saddam’s strength, intelligence and capabilities are all reasons for him to be feared by the powers that wish to keep Libya divided. Be those powers rouge elements in Western intelligence establishments, or pro-Muslim Brotherhood Arab states. Hence, compromising Saddam’s life would definitely be very convenient to those forces. JaFaJ intelligence sources have confirmed that Saddam’s life is in danger as he is on the target list by several rouge elements and countries.
16-One of the main threats to Saddam’s life is his carelessness with foreign travel. He travels to different countries, usually using a government-owned jet (a Dassault Falcon 900EX), bearing the tale number 5A-DCN. The Arab media has recognized the “jet” as his on the internet. This makes him a very soft target as airplane accidents are some of the most convenient assassination methods. Also, Saddam travels often to Jordan, a kingdom fully engaged with the Muslim Brotherhood and aligned with Qatar, Turkey, and Iran. Hence, he is making himself a soft target to his very own enemies, and mistaking his enemies, the Jordanians, for his friends.
Conclusion
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17-Saddam Haftar has the potential to unite Libya and revive it. To accomplish this, he must do a few things that will help re-establish his image at home and abroad through an advanced media campaign. If this is done, this will protect him from war crimes and corruption accusations being bandied about by his foes.
18-If done successfully, Saddam must seek new allies in Paris as the most likely and capable potential Western ally at the moment, while accepting that his life is in danger and most likely will remain in danger for the next few years. That means he must eliminate mistakes, protect his guard, resist questionable situations and restrict his travel to rouge countries like Jordan.