1. Summary: The most trusted intelligence officers of Egypt’s President Sisi have confirmed to him that senior army generals were plotting to topple him allegedly in a coup disguised as a public revolution. At the same time, Egyptian activists in exile have been calling for the mother of all revolutions to topple Sisi. They have set November 11th as the day to inaugurate the revolution. Some of those activists are indeed tied to certain elements of Egyptian military intelligence. It is reported that Sisi became frantic after hearing the warning, and has been on a conquest to “identify the traitors”. The call for a November 11 revolution has gained substantial momentum. It is unlikely though that a revolution could topple Sisi unless it received the backing of the Egyptian army itself.
2. JaFaJ sources have confirmed that Egyptian President Sisi’s trusted intelligence officers have advised him that “Senior army officers are contemplating a military coup disguised as a revolution in November”. The news came to light during a cabinet level security meeting held by Sisi and his son, Mahmud, who serves as his de facto “everything minister”. The meeting was attended by a few of Sisi’s trusted intelligence officers.
3-Those in attendance briefed Sisi on the issue, claiming that top-ranked Egyptian generals and Military Intelligence officers are involved in the recent revolutionary calls against Sisi. According to the sources, they reported to Sisi that rouge generals are “in cahoots with foreign powers who allegedly want to get rid of Sisi and put someone more tolerated by the Egyptian public”. Mahmud then told those in attendance that the specific date of the planned coup was November 11th, 2022. This is the exact date the Egyptian opposition has set for the launch of a mother of all revolutions.
4. JaFaJ sources have learned that President Sisi’s reaction to the reports was dramatic. He passed the bad news to his wife, Entesar, who is usually the last person to whisper in his ear. Entesar has become frantic since then and has been pushing her husband and son to hit the rouge elements within their regime very hard. As a result, Sisi immediately began meeting privately with selected army and military intelligence officers to intimidate them, while both Sisi and his son, Mahmoud, being “convinced they will be able to identify traitors”, and are turning over every stone to find them.
5. An intelligence officer himself, Mahmud has a history of providing faulty intelligence to either impress his father or invoke certain actions from him. Therefore, it is not clear how accurate the intelligence gathered by Mahmoud Sisi and his loyalists has been; it is clear though that the allegations come at a time when there are sweeping calls on social media by Egyptian opposition activists in exile, for change. Activists are calling on the Egyptian public to take action and join them in changing the Sisi regime through a public revolution. They all seem to promote the line that “there is no solution with Sisi, he must go”. The major twist comes from this: they also have a launch date for their action on November 11th.
6. At the moment, there is no mistake in saying Sisi has been alienated by Western and Arab leaders alike, and also at home by the most senior members of the Egyptian military regime which has ruled Egypt since 1952. This divide, and resentment of Sisi and his actions, has spread throughout the ranks of the military regime itself. Even his most senior generals are concerned about his recklessness and heavy handed actions with the public, actions which have included executions, arrests and mass detentions. Additionally, his generals are very concerned that Sisi’s actions might result in the demise of the Egyptian military regime itself [Comment: for more information on this, please see our report and this matter dated January 2022. [https://www.jafaj.net/egypts-army-fed-up-with-sisi-global-powers-eyeing-mubaraks-son-for-succession/ End Comment]
The Nermeen Adel Syndrome
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7. The calls for a “sweeping revolution” to topple Sisi have been led by an Egyptian dissident residing in Canada named Nermeen Adel. Adel has captivated Egyptian social media for months by revealing secrets of the Egyptian state and Sisi. She is particularly ruthless in her criticism of Sisi’s son Mahmud and openly admits that she has connections within the ranks of the Egyptian military regime. Notably, she has been promoting the rhetoric that the Egyptian army and police would not attack protesters and in fact, would “support them” if they take to the streets against Sisi. She maintains that Egypt’s army is “honorable” and “good people are commanding it”. Adel has recently joined forces with outspoken Egyptian opposition activist and former Egyptian government insider, Mohammad Ali. Ali hit fame in the Arab world when he fled to Europe and began leaking inside information about Sisi’s personal life and lavish lifestyle.
8. JaFaJ intelligence sources within the Egyptian army confirm that Nermeen Adel is an independent oppositionist who bears sincere hatred for Sisi’s regime. At the same time, Adel is in touch with members of Egyptian military intelligence who have been feeding her information. The sources reported that Adel has been assured that she “would be protected” by the Egyptian intelligence officers and that “she was not breaking any Canadian laws by seeking to depose Sisi by peaceful means”. A confidential Egyptian military source told JaFaJ that “She is the big guys’ mouthpiece, she’s decent with no spots on her records or private life, she can’t be blackmailed, she is not ugly looking, she’s well-spoken and gets the message across. I also can feel she genuinely hates what Sisi has done to the people of this country”. He added, “Sisi knows the big guys in here [the military establishment] are behind this girl [Adel], but what can he do – lock all of the generals up? If he did that, he surely would be toppled the next morning – but he would if he could”.
Conclusion
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9. It is not clear if the call for a full-blown revolution on November 11 will come to fruition. Even so, the widespread rhetoric over Egyptian social media has gained unprecedented public momentum. Nonetheless, in this case, no actual “revolution” could take place without the complete involvement of the Egyptian military. JaFaJ has confirmed that Egypt’s most senior military leaders are in favor of deposing Sisi. Nonetheless, it is not clear if they can currently pull off such a move. On one hand, on November 11, Egypt may witness some serious local events. But on the other hand, if they do occur, they are not expected to knock Sisi off his throne unless the army chooses to carry out a coup. As a result, Egypt will remain under the tight Sisi regime for as long as the army is not invoking serious action against him. This could shift rapidly thanks to Egypt’s inflation, a ravaged economy that has diminished the value of the Egyptian Pound, and an Egyptian military elite who are growing restless because of the actions of Sisi and his family.