Former Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s Likud party and its far-right allies are set to be the largest grouping in Israel’s parliament after November’s elections, according to three opinion polls published on Monday.
Netanyahu’s camp – which includes the ultra-Orthodox Shas party and United Torah Judaism alliance, and the hardline Religious Zionist Party – are set to win 59 out of 120 Knesset seats, two shy of a majority, according to current polling.
Though the distribution of seats within the grouping differs across the polls, the surveys for Kan 11 state media, Channel 12 and Channel 13 agree on the overall result – a Netanyahu win.
Meanwhile, the anti-Netanyahu parties, led by Prime Minister Yair Lapid and Defence Minister Benny Gantz, lag behind on 55 seats, Kan 11 and Channel 12 found.
This figure includes the seats set to go to the United Arab List, or Raam, which currently participates in Israel’s wide-ranging coalition government that sent former Prime Minister Netanyahu into opposition in 2021.
The anti-Netanyahu bloc’s performance was even worse in Channel 13’s survey, where they were put on just 51 MPs.
The Joint List of predominantly Palestinian parties, which Raam broke away from in January 2021, was set to win six seats.
The results suggest Lapid would require the support of the Joint List to form a government, an improbable scenario.
Netanyahu, for his part, could bring one of the parties opposed to him into his bloc, particularly from the alliance between Benny Gantz’s Blue and White Coalition and Justice Minister Gideon Saar’s New Hope party.
Despite most Israelis approving Israel’s recent three-day bombing campaign against Gaza – which killed 46 Palestinians, among them 15 children – Netanyahu is still Israel’s preferred prime minister.
In Channel 12’s survey, 42 percent favoured the Likud party leader as premier, with 31 percent preferring Lapid and 23 percent Gantz.