1. Summary: The impact of the actions by the Saudi Arabia Kingdom are felt not just regionally, but internationally. The decision to name a replacement to the Throne is a narrow path that takes a lot of thought, discussion, and hope because it teeters between consistency and continuity and having confidence in the future leadership shaping the nation’s future. JaFaJ has learned through its sources that the King of Saudi Arabia, Salman Bin Abdelaziz, is planning to step down and pass the Throne to his son, Mohammad Bin Salman (MBS). The appointment of MBS to the Throne will serve as an exhibit of defeat to his enemies, including those in Washington DC, many of whom are former Obama administration members who have crossed the bridge into Biden’s administration.
2. JaFaJ Intelligence sources have confirmed that the King of Saudi Arabia, Salman Bin Abdelaziz, has decided to pass the Throne to his son Mohammed bin Salman (MBS) before the end of this year. Multiple sources have confirmed that the King is contemplating exactly when and how to make the announcement. His advisors are currently focused on preparing a televised address to be made by the King to the people of Saudi Arabia. In the address, he will be appointing his son as his successor. One source added that it might come as soon as the Eid Adha Muslim Holiday which should make the successful conclusion of the Hajj to Mecca”. [COMMENT: Hajj, the Islamic pilgrimage to Mecca is expected to begin on the 7th of July this year and conclude on the 12th. END COMMENT]
3. The sources added that the reason for King Salman’s decision is his “desire to see the younger generation of the Saudi Royal Family take the lead, and his belief that the next generation – the Abdelaziz’s grandchildren – must play the major role in advancing the kingdom into the future”.
King Salman Is Not Ill
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4. The 86-year-old King Salman has had some minor age-related health issues, but not any major problems. Western officials who have been in direct contact with him have recently confirmed the King is of a sound mind and flatly dismiss rumors that he was suffering from Alzheimer’s. The sources stated that the rumors about Alzheimer’s were “lies made up by some Saudi opposition activists who reside in Britain”.
5. A source who serves as an adviser to a leader of an Arab Gulf state, has confirmed to JaFaJ that “King Salman trusts Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s capabilities and judgement, and has all along”. But he thought that the young and agile prince needed some ‘on the job training,’ and the King now believes that the Crown Prince has passed all tests with flying colors”. He added, “If you ask me, I think His Royal Highness has been on a Royal crash course for the past few years, and it appears that he learned quickly”.
The Saudi Royal Family Rallies Behind MBS
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6.JaFaJ sources have confirmed that there have been a flurry of meetings between senior members of the Saudi Royal Family during the Muslim holy month of Ramadan. Many of those meetings took place around Iftar banquets, which is the Muslim tradition of having a late dinner after fasting through the day of Ramadan. The sources report the Saudi Royal Family appears to be very supportive of the Crown Prince and quite eager for MBS to be announced as King.
7. A member of an Arab Royal Family with close ties to the Saudi Royal Family told JaFaJ, “The House of Saud already depends on the management and wisdom of Mohammed bin Salman on both foreign and internal policies”.
8. The source added, “For example, the economy has been growing, therefore, he had no opposition from either the Royal Family members or from the Saudi people. [COMMENT: the Royal Family is indeed supportive of MBS, on the other hand, there appears to be a small group of Royals who remain “disgruntled” after the Crown Prince prosecuted them for their involvement in corruption which ended up in the confiscation of 100 billion Saudi dollars from them and their accomplices. END COMMENT]
Mohammad bin Salman (MBS) the People’s Prince
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9. Royal Arab sources have reported that “Above anything, MBS knows the Saudi people. Let’s be honest, the Saudi population is young, more than 50 percent of them are young people, and they love Bin Salman’s policies of openness and lifting the radical grip of Islamists over the country.” The source ended by saying that “It’s like allowing women to drive and festive activities that have all made his popularity sky-rocket”.
10. A retired American officer source who has worked directly with both the former King of Saudi Arabia (Abdullah bin Abdelaziz) and King Salman, has described Bin Salman as “Habib Elshab”, which in Arabic translates into “the beloved prince of the people”. He explained, “This young man addresses all the grievances of a young Saudi generation, and he has brought in most of the change they wanted swiftly, and they love him for it”.
11. An active Western diplomat currently serving in the Saudi capital, reported that “When it comes to popularity and public approval, the Crown Prince doesn’t have issues or competitors”. The source added that “He’s handsome, charismatic and tall with a striking resemblance to his late grandfather, Abdelaziz, [the founder of the Saudi Kingdom]”. The source then “warned” that nonetheless, the people do have economic issues and concerns that have to be confronted, and as a result, “People have certain demands connected to their livelihoods, and MBS is working on them. In fact, he has made some tangible progress, and there is not what you call economic suffering in Saudi Arabia”. The source added that “they do not seem remotely interested in foreign policies. They trust the Prince.”
12. Comment: it is safe to say that MBS enjoys popularity within the different ranks of Saudi society. MBS is generally accepted and quite likeable by his countrymen and women. Additionally, MBS doesn’t have any serious competition concerning the future leadership of the country. That is because there are no other young or qualified Saudi Royals with the credentials and portfolio he has earned while working with his father. Western intelligence sources have told JaFaJ that “There are no opposition figures who are remotely able to influence the county’s public opinion or any tangible opposition body, instead, the opposition is microscopic and scattered over several Western capitals. Therefore, it is safe to say MBS does not have any outstanding challenges at home”.
MBS Enemies
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13. In a textbook scenario, the transition of power from King Salman to his son should be smooth. Nonetheless, the Crown Prince does have enemies, and some of the camps are right on his country’s borders. The fiercest opposition comes from elements in Washington DC, and consists of the remnants of the Obama Administration’s political apparatus. Many members of Obama’s Administration are serving in the Biden Administration, and they seem to be passionate about antagonizing the Saudi Crown Prince.
14. A very well-informed Arab intelligence source reported to JaFaJ, “Those Obama people seem to have an issue for His Royal Highness. It’s like a whole apparatus in America is dedicated to working against him and they are all connected to the Democrats, along with some Republicans. Combined they are working against Saudi Arabia’s interests, and working hard to influence the White House, Congress, Senate, New York Times, and The Washington Post, all of whom appear to be obsessed with His Royal Highness”.
15. A well-connected European source with proximity to both the Saudi and UAE Royal families reported to JaFaJ that “MBS does have major differences with the Biden Administration, but he does not wish to antagonize Biden or his people”.
MBS Differences with Biden, Yemen, and Iran
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16. The European source added that a major policy difference between Saudi Arabia and the Biden Administration is in Yemen. The source explained: “Biden removed the Iranian militias in Yemen (the Houthis) from the terror list, and this has allowed them to launch terror attacks on Saudi Arabia while they conducted business with the rest of the world without restrictions”. The source added “Imagine what it means if we were to declare someone like ISIS [the Islamic State terror group] a legitimate organization while they are bombing the streets of New York, London, and Boston?” The source added that “Biden’s actions have given Iran ‘carte blanche’ to support militias in Yemen, and help them attack Saudi civilians, what Biden did was an act of war against one of America’s most significant allies in the Middle East”.
17. The source continued by saying that the Saudis have become more and more disgruntled with the Biden Administration, and it started when the USA withdrew the Patriot anti-missile defense systems from them. This “Has left the Saudi skies open to rockets and mortar shells from the Houthis in Yemen”. The source continued by saying, “Biden was sending a message to the Houthis that it was open season for attacks on Saudi Arabia. As a result of these actions, the Saudis have had to purchase military and security systems from other countries, including Russia and China. As a result, they have lost confidence in the United States, and as a result, the Saudis have shifted more towards Russia, and rightfully so”.
18. How to handle Iran’s actions remains the largest source of disagreement between the Saudis and the Biden Administration, especially as Biden keeps pushing for another nuclear deal between the US and Iran. A Saudi source told JaFaJ that “the Saudi Royal establishment sees the deal as an extension of the Obama doctrine to hand the entire Arab world to Iran.” The source added that “this has been a Democratic Party policy, supported by many Republicans. Don’t forget, President Bush (the little one) [Bush W] handed Iraq and all its wealth to Iran on a golden platter”. He added, “We no longer trust the US, and we are not going to allow a deal with Iran to take place, no matter what it takes. The Saudis believe that His Royal Highness, [the Crown Prince], is strong enough to face off all of this no matter what anyone does, we can find new allies who won’t be double-faced like the US.”
19. An American diplomat who has served in several Arab Gulf countries reported the following to JaFaJ, “We have done everything to push those folks [Saudis] away, and right now we are putting them in a predicament where if they allow our Iran policy to run its course in the region it’s going to bring them demise.” The source added that “We know they’ve been shifting towards both Russia and China, and that the Saudi Crown Prince has very good relations with Russia, and I cannot blame him for maintaining a distance between him and Biden”. The source ended by saying, “I bet you when MBS becomes King, American media, legislators and officials will be throwing all kinds of stupid nonsense at him instead of congratulating him, and sadly, we will pay dearly for this, guaranteed”.
MBS’s Regional Enemies: Small, Fragmented, and Irrelevant
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20. MBS is one of two key figures supporting an alliance of moderate nations in the region, with the second being UAE’s Crown Prince Mohammad Bin Zayed. Together, they are leading their countries, along with Bahrain, Morocco and to some extent, Egypt, to combine and confront Iran and their actions in the region. As a result, MBS and his allies have few regional adversaries. The largest troublemaker is Qatar, a nation with a regional apparatus of friends who share the same policies. Those policies include being in bed with radical factors, particularly the Muslim Brotherhood and Iran. Qatar’s political security and ideological marriage with the Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan is unbreakable, both countries operate together on different fronts. Additionally, both are close friends with Algeria and the Iraqi government, a government that is recognized in the region as a proxy government for Iran.
21. Even though MBS’s Middle Eastern enemies are numerous, they are weak, mostly poor, internally unstable, and regionally unwelcomed nations. As a result, they are less likely to enact any form of change or disturbance that will impact the transition of Saudi power that will see MBS take the Throne. Of course, there is always a chance that Qatar’s Al Jazeera could make a media nuisance, but even so, they are not likely to cause any tangible disturbance to the process. Additionally, lately Qatar has been more friendly towards Saudi Arabia, especially under the influence of the regional unrest and the much-expected aftershock because of the Russian operations in Ukraine.
22. In conclusion popular strong and unrivalled, MBS will succeed his father King Salman with minimal trouble. His Washington DC enemies will not be able to influence the process or change its course. Because of the smooth transition of power, not much change is expected in Saudi Arabia’s political policies after MBS takes over. On one hand, this is because many of his policies are currently in place, combined with the other hand, namely the fact that he has already changed much of the county’s decision-making process. As a result, the United States, under the Biden administration, seems to be on a course of losing a very capable Arab ally, as well as pushing away MBS and others into the arms of new friends like Moscow, and Beijing, or reconnecting to old friends in London.