BAGHDAD, Iraq-
The attention of Iraqis has shifted to the disagreement between Kurdish forces over the nomination of the country’s next president, after the Shia camp within the Coordinating Framework managed to reach an agreement on the selection of the Minister of Labour and Social Affairs Muhammad Shiaa Al-Sudani as its nominee for prime minister.
Iraqi political analysts say that the approach of the Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) could scupper any deal with The Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK) to agree on a nominee for the presidency because the KDP is not looking for a compromise with the PUK and continues to pressure the pro-Iran Shia political alliance, the Coordination Framework in a way that some descibe as an “attempt at blackmail”…
They point out that statements from KDP leaders led by Massoud Barzani are bound to prolong the impasse.
The KDP opposes renewing the mandate of current president, Barham Salih, who is the PUK’s candidate. It also threatens to use its blocking third prerogative to prevent the holding of a special parliamentary session to elect a president.
Party leaders have already said that they have nothing to lose from the continuing political crisis in Iraq.
The Kurdistan Democratic Party has put forward two options to end the crisis over the presidency. The first calls for a vote on the presidential candidate by the regional Kurdistan parliament, while the second option is to leave the decision to the largest parliamentary bloc among Kurdish forces, which would clearly favour the KDP.
Analysts say that KDP’s proposals are seen as an attempt to avoid the scenario of 2018, when the PUK and KDP submitted candidates to the Iraqi parliament, which decided in favour of the former party, as Barham Salih ended up gaining the upper hand over his rival, former minister Fouad Hussein.
The analysts add that the KDP realises that if it goes to the Iraqi parliament seeking a resolution of the disagreement, the outcome would inevitably again be in favour of the PUK, considering the alliances which that the rival Kurdish party maintains with the dominant forces in parliament, especially the Coordination Framework.
On Tuesday, Mahma Khalil, an MP from the Kurdistan Democartic Party, ruled out holding a parliamentary session next Thursday to elect the president, proposing that the main option now is to go to the regional parliament to resolve the dispute, or base the decision on which Kurdish bloc holds the larger number of parliament seats.
Khalil said that, “the Democratic Party has the right to present its candidate for the presidency, who is Riber Ahmed (minister of interior of the Kurdistan region). The same right was used by the other factions in choosing the speaker of the House of Representatives and the prime minister.”
Since 2006, a tacit agreement has existed between the KDP and PUK, by which the former takes the presidency of the Kurdish region, while the latter assumes the Iraqi presidency. But the KDP has since 2018 sought to evade the terms of the deal and tried to monopolise all the powers and positions assigned to the Kurdish camp.
According to a sectarian division of powers within the Iraqi state sponsored by the United States after its occupation of Iraq in 2003, the presidency of the republic goes to the Kurds and the prime minister’s office to the Shia, while the Sunni camp takes the speakership of parliament.
The KDP’s Khalil said that “a meeting was held between the President of the Democratic Party, Massoud Barzani, and the President of the Patriotic Union, Bafel Talabani, where they reached a level of understanding. But renewing Saleh’s term in office as president will not happen.” He added that “Salih has lost his political compass” and was unacceptable to the political class, which has already accepted Muhammad al-Halbousi as speaker the House of Representatives and Muhammad Shiaa al-Sudani to be the nominee for prime minister.
According to the MP, “Salih’s clinging to his position has caused the political log-jam, as the incumbent has problems with the Coordination Framework, and even within his party.”
The Kurdistan Democratic Party has not concealed its hostility to Salih since he succeeded in 2018 in pulling out the rug from under the feet of its own candidate, Fouad Hussein. Observers say that there are other motives behind the KDP rejection of Salih, including its belief that the latter’s policies do not serve Kurdistan’s specific interests as much as they favour Iraqi interests as a whole.
President Salih wants to keep the same distance from all political forces in Iraq. He has committed himself to steering away from any ideological bias, ethnic influences, or political alignments, which have long side-tracked Iraq and led it to the brink of bankruptcy.
The KDP advocates instead a transactional approach, as it seeks to use Kurdish participation in the national politics of Iraq to serve the Kurdish region and its political and economic interests.
After having picked Sudani as its nominee for premier, the Coordination Framework forces called on the Kurdish parties to reach an agreement quickly on the presidency.
The selection of a president for Iraq is an essential step before a new government can be formed. According to the constitution, the president is the one who tasks the prime minister with forming the cabinet.