1. Summary: Israeli intelligence and CENTCOM have detailed knowledge of an Iranian plan to retaliate for the assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyah on July 31, 2024. The response involves multiple fronts including Lebanon, Yemen, the West Bank, Jordan, and Egypt. Iran: Iran plans to launch limited mid-range missiles to demonstrate deterrence without causing significant harm, likely intercepted by American air defense in Jordan. Iran has communicated through Qatar that it does not seek full-scale war. Iran and its allies complex, multi-front strategy is aimed at challenging Israeli security while avoiding a full-scale war with it.
IRANIAN ATTACK PLANS
2. JaFaJ has learned that the Israeli intelligence apparatus and CENTCOM have obtained detailed knowledge of an Iranian plan to retaliate for the assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyah on July 31, 2024, in Tehran. Israel is aware that the Iranian response will involve multiple fronts and countries.
THE LEBANESE FRONT
3. Lebanon will be at the forefront of the Iranian plan. Hezbollah, the pro-Iranian militant group, is expected to escalate attacks, including rocket launches on northern Israeli villages and possibly targeting Tel Aviv with long-range missiles. However, the primary goal appears to be instilling fear rather than causing significant damage, to avoid provoking a substantial Israeli retaliation on Beirut.
COMMENTARY ON HEZBOLLAH’S IMPACT
4. Despite limited physical damage and casualties from Hezbollah’s attacks, the psychological impact on northern Israeli residents has been significant, leading to mass evacuations and a substantial strain on the Israeli government’s resources. This ongoing threat undermines Israeli deterrence and affects the social fabric and prestige of the state.
IRAN’S DIRECT ACTIONS
5. Iran is expected to launch a limited number of mid-range missiles, primarily aimed at demonstrating deterrence without causing significant harm, to avoid a large-scale Israeli response. The missiles are likely to be intercepted by American air defense systems in Jordan. The Iranian government has communicated to the United States Government (USG) through the Government of Qatar (GOQ) that they do not seek a full-scale war.
THE WEST BANK
6. The expected Iranian-led escalation against Israel is expected to include attacks on Israeli civilians and military in the West Bank, with a focus on settlements and East Jerusalem and around the Al-Aqsa Mosque. These areas have been declared high-risk by Israeli security.
THE JORDANIAN INVOLVEMENT
7. The report indicates potential involvement of Jordanian proxies in the attacks. Despite Jordan’s stable relationship with Iran, the country may play a role in the upcoming escalation, with threats expected in East Jerusalem, Highway 60, West Bank settlements, and Tel Aviv. The attacks might target armed Israeli guards and involve various tactics, including knife and gun assaults.
JORDANIAN BORDER THREATS
8. Israeli intelligence has confirmed the likelihood of attacks across the Jordanian border, potentially involving rogue Jordanian soldiers or individuals affiliated with the Iranian Revolutionary Guards posing as Iraqi citizens. The nature of these attacks is unclear, but aligns with threats made by Jordanian intelligence officers to American counterparts. The general sentiment is that Jordan’s government might be leveraging these threats to maintain favorable ties with Iran and its allies.
THE EGYPTIAN FRONT
9. An attack on Israeli troops at the Rafah crossing between Gaza and Egypt is expected, possibly involving an Egyptian soldier with the tacit knowledge of Egyptian military intelligence. Previous attacks by Egyptian border guards have been dismissed by the Egyptian government as isolated incidents.
THE YEMENI FRONT
10. Pro-Iranian militias in Yemen, specifically the Houthis, are expected to increase missile attacks on Israeli targets, aiming to coincide with the broader regional escalation. These attacks could target shipping routes in the Red Sea and Israeli soil, with the potential for significant impact between August 5th and 8th, 2024. This intelligence highlights a complex and multi-front strategy by Iran and its allies, aiming to challenge Israeli security and resilience while managing the risk of provoking a full-scale war and safe face in the region after Israel assassinated one of Iran’s strongest allies, Haniyah, right under Iran’s nose in Tehran.