1-JaFaJ intelligence sources in Egypt have confirmed that the Egyptian public has become so dismayed with President Sisi’s policies, that they are collectively being pushed to the point of a “regime change” that is being displayed through a public resentment of him. These feelings are magnified by Sisi’s ruthless grip on power, as well as draconian economic tactics that have exhausted the people’s patience. A Western diplomat based in Cairo reported that “We’ve never seen Egyptians so angry with their ruler as they are today. The source added that, “I personally have never seen an Arab ruler who is so indifferent towards his public image and approval ratings”. A retired Egyptian Air Force officer who spoke with JaFaJ said, “New crazy laws are being imposed every day by Sisi, and nobody is spared the taxation of everything. Sisi is even taxing tips on food delivery drivers and has started confiscating donation money made at mosques. What else should the people accept? They have nothing to lose anymore and we [military officers] are afraid he might turn the entire population against us”.
EGYPT’S ARMY IS CONCENRED
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2-COMMENT: Since toppling the Monarchy in 1952, Egypt has been ruled by its military. Except for Morsi, all Egyptian Presidents have been army officers. The Egyptian Armed Forces is more like a political party, with senior officers making up most of the significant government positions. After Egyptian generals retire, they are regularly assigned to senior government and even private section jobs which they are notorious for running very badly. All publicly held companies have retired army generals on their boards, usually appointed by the government itself. The Egyptian military regime has served its ranks very well. Egyptian servicemen have become a ruling class, amassed incredible fortunes and have been passing their jobs to their children for decades as they enjoy full immunity from the law in Egypt. The status quo has served the Egyptian army and its members for decades, nonetheless, they are concerned that Sisi’s rouge image might compromise the very regime under which they have benefited the most.
3-An Egyptian academic with significant contact with the American, British and German embassies in Cairo, as well as at one time being very close to the family of the late Egyptian president Mubarak, confirmed to JaFaJ that, “The ruling elite is concerned that Sisi might bring them all down with his recklessness and thuggish approach. The mere fact that he cannot control his mouth and manages to provoke the Egyptian people with his public speeches, shows that he’s arrogant and never listens to advice from army generals who are way smarter and more informed than he is”.
4-The source added that “Concerned Egyptian generals are not shy about voicing their grievances about Sisi within their private circles, and they call him “Sisi El Majnoon [the crazy]”. Additionally, they are not shy about voicing their concerns with Foreign [Western] Diplomats and military attaches when they meet with them”.
5-An Egyptian intelligence source in regular contact with Sisi’s inner circle reported to JaFaJ about a meeting that took place last October (2021] at the private mansion of a very senior military officer in the suburbs of Cairo. The source said the meeting was attended by “Very senior army generals and military intelligence officers and somewhat kept a secret from Sisi himself”. The source added that, “The gatherers discussed Sisi’s image and the potential of another revolution in Egypt that will be triggered by Sisi’s actions and his mindless economic measures such as striping the poor from their property under the pretext of illegal construction and jacking up food prices and taxation on the most vulnerable working class”. A source who serves as the military secretary for a senior Egyptian general who had attended the meeting, confirmed that the gatherers exhibited total disgust about Sisi, and that some referred to him as “another Qaddafi”, in reference to the late Libyan leader’s obsession with show off and self-image.
6-When asked if the generals feared repercussions because of their comments, the sources responded by saying that “Sisi cannot destroy the regime that protects him”. The source added that, “he already keeps most of the stolen wealth for himself and that he has cut down their access to public funds”. The source concluded by saying that “The people are miffed, and that’s why they talk against him”. Nonetheless, Sisi doesn’t understand that the majority of the most senior army generals are not happy with him at all”. He added “Those generals were echoing what they already been discussing with Western diplomats, therefore they know the West kind of have their backs covered on this topic, were they convinced Sisi is backed by the West, they would not dare speak.
7-A Western intelligence source who has operated in Egypt for two decades, reported to JaFaJ that “Sisi represents a unique case in Egypt’s modern history. He is too unintelligent to assess risk and too arrogant to listen to warnings. It is safe to say that if he continues, he could be the man to bring the Egyptian regime down, not only himself”. He explained that “Mubarak was smart because he allowed opposition to be vocal and absorbed it. Additionally, he allowed the Egyptian people the “minimum standards of living”. Sisi is the opposite. He thinks it’s a soccer match, and he has eradicated all moderate opposition. This has left the people with no place to vent their anger.
8-The source added that Sisi has also gone after every penny that the Egyptian poor has, and he is not even shy about showing off his newly acquired wealth. The source added that, “Sisi has failed to address the population and Country’s major concerns, and cited the example of Nahda Dam which is being built by Ethiopia. Egyptian are afraid the dam will make them die of thirst and the President has failed to tackle this problem or give any comforting assurances to the terrified public. The Egyptians have nothing to lose now, and a massive revolution might as well be coming, after all, nobody saw the January 25th revolution coming, even I did not”.
HIS ROYAL HIGNESS; SIS’S SON, IS A PROBLEM
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9-A senior Arab intelligence source reported to JaFaJ that President Sisi’s son, Mahmoud, is the one running the state on behalf of his father. “This young man is really inexperienced and his apparent intelligence cannot make up for the lack of experience. He is very enthusiastic, but at the same time, he is plagued by his dad’s major flaws: ignoring advice, a super inflated ego and thinking that the Sisi family is a royal family. He also believes that he will succeed his father”. He added “The thought of succession itself is crazy, Mubarak wanted his son Jamal to succeed him, but he could not pull that off, and it ended in disaster even though Mubarak was politically stronger and was more accepted by the public than Sisi”.
10-A senior Egyptian military officer who has worked with three Egyptian Presidents (Mubarak, Morsi and Sisi), confided to JaFaJ that “Sisi’s son, Mahmoud, is the real ruler of Egypt, and added that his dad has given him a much bigger position than he could fill. “This has put Egypt in a potential conflict with Libya, offended Arab gulf states and embarrassed us [Egyptians] before the world on multiple occasions. This also includes the very problematic relationship with Italy in which he was instrumental”. Mahmud is learning by trial and error and you can’t afford this in our corner of the world, let alone a huge country Egypt”.
11-An Arab intelligence officer whose country is considered very close to Sisi’s regime explained to JaFaJ that “Sisi’s son is connected to a certain click in the CIA, some of them old guards, and some even closer to Obama’s people and known for messing things up and may not even hold the best intentions for Sisi and his son. Nonetheless, Sisi’s son thinks he is invincible by following exactly what some CIA big wigs tell him, and this comes at a time when most of the Arab governments have become wary of the CIA after a decade of the Arab Spring during which many CIA officials have proven to subscribe to crazy ideas that have brought the region a lot of disasters”
12-The source added that “The Egyptian army itself has provided warnings to President Sisi against raising taxes and evicting people from their homes, as well as carrying out executions. The advice given to Sisi has been clear: keep the opposition in jails for as long as possible and don’t turn them into martyrs by executing them. This advice has fallen on deaf ears, apparently because Mahmoud wants to play Rambo”.
13-An Egyptian statesman who had worked with Mubarak’s wife Suzan, and now resides in a Western country, reported to JaFaJ that “It is often said that Mubarak’s son, Jamal, was the one who brought his father down, and for sure, it will be Mahmoud who will bring Sisi down”. It is safe to say that Sisi and his son are a threat to the Egyptian regime itself, and it’s clear that this is how the most senior army officers see things today and they know that even the smaller fish know the same but cannot speak out”.
THE WEST IS THINKING OF PLAN B
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14-A senior Western intelligence source has confirmed to JaFaJ that many decision-makers in the West, as well as in the Arab world, share concerns over Sisi’s regime survivability and the damage it could cause to the seven-decade-old military regime of Egypt. One official commented by saying that, “Sisi is pitting the Egyptian people and the military establishment against himself, and this may shake Egypt’s foundations and bring him down for good, making Egypt another Libya or worse.” The source closed by saying that this will compromise our interests and those of the Americans and the Israelis, therefore, yes… We are all eyeing potential alternatives, a plan B if you wish to call it that”.
15-Western intelligence officials have confirmed with JaFaJ that “The issue is not whether Sisi will be ousted, but rather that every day he spends in power, he is creating damage that could prove very hard to fix, and as such, it is not unlikely that the [Egyptian] generals may show him the door at one point to save themselves”. They added that “at the moment, a military coup is not in the making, but could not be ruled out, and that top-notch generals have spoken to Americans, Britons and Russians and stated their opposition to Sisi. They have expressed their concerns and desire for change, and the military regime has consumed itself and may fall under its own weight. The removal of Sisi, along with a succession of a civilian government will allow the army to control the succession while proving to be a perfect remedy for change that may defuse the angry public”.
16-The sources also reported that “Western decision-makers and key intelligence agencies have looked at different scenarios for change in Egypt including alternatives to Sisi in case he falls. One thing that their research and investigation has established is that the public is yearning for pre-revolution Mubarak days because prices were much lower, and the economy was booming.”
ALAA MUBARAK, A VALID ALTERNATIVE?
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17-JaFaJ intelligence sources in Egypt have confirmed that Alaa Mubarak, second son of the late Egyptian president, has surfaced as a potential acceptable and eligible successor to Sisi. “ He is a civilian, and is an unknown Mubarak not associated with any governmental corruption cases, and unlike his brother, Jamal, he has never sought public office. This may be the kind of president Egypt’s army would like to place in power after Sisi is gone”. [COMMENT: Jamal Mubarak is notorious for alleged corruption and for his open quest to succeed his father as Egypt’s president. Just like Mahmud Sisi, Jamal was known to be the de facto ruler of the country. On the other hand, Alaa, Mubarak’s younger son, enjoys a good reputation and is known for being religious and down to earth unlike his brother and therefore is more likely to be accepted by the Egyptian public. END COMMENT]
18-A Western Diplomat representing a major power reported, “Nobody is forcing Sisi to step down or pushing Alaa Mubarak to become President, nor are we planning to meddle in Egypt’s Presidential choice. Nonetheless, army generals, former Mubarak regime officials and some Arab governments have been communicating with Alaa Mubarak for months now and are asking him whether he would consider a future in politics. Some have even gone as far as to urge him to “consider running for President and pledging full financial and media support for him”. Additionally, senior officers from Egypt’s military intelligence have met with after years of avoiding the Mubarak family as a whole”.
19-JaFaJ has confirmed that some Western officials have casually met with Alaa Mubarak to test his intentions and know that he is unhappy with the way Sisi has been treating the Egyptian people and running the country. They believe that he won’t be making any “moves” unless he knows “that the Egyptian public desires and support it, adding that he would serve the country if called on”. One source connected to Alaa himself commented that “He is not challenging Sisi yet, nonetheless, he keeps his door open”.
CONCLUSION
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20-It has become evident that President Sisi is publicly disliked in a country that he rules with an iron fist. His crackdown on civil rights and freedoms, as well as his zero-tolerance policy with opposition and his severely harsh economic measures have left Egyptians angry and hopeless, and vulnerable to foreign interference and the rise of radical Islamists, making Egyptians desperate for any form of change including the return of the old Mubarak regime. At the same time, Egypt’s ruling military elite is concerned and is considering change that may not include either Sisi or his son. Sisi has built his regime upon and around the military establishment who traditionally see the President as one of their own, and therefore believe that they are entitled to larger shares of the “benefits”. This makes the status quo a recipe for serious trouble, while at the same time, talks about Alaa Mubarak as an alternative are still in their infancy. If Alaa is to compete with Sisi in future Presidential elections, he will need global support, extensive financial and media provisions from the Arab Gulf states and the support of the Egyptian army itself. At the moment, all that Alaa represents is the nostalgia of the better days the Egyptian population had had under his father, Mubarak. Nonetheless, Egypt itself is vulnerable and headed for a series of questions that will lead to massive changes in the government and nation, and Alaa Mubarak cannot be ruled out as a potential alternative that will bring positive change to Egypt. No matter which direction Egypt heads, one thing is certain: More than ever, Egypt is open to change and no option or idea should (or can) be ruled out.