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ips-journal.eu – DEMOCRACY AND SOCIETY 08.08.2022 
By  Sarah Hepp
 Article: click here

The storming of the Iraqi parliament by supporters of Al-Sadr were motivated by years of political impasse — threatening Iraq’s democracy and peace

Reuters – Supporters of Iraqi populist leader Muqtada al-Sadr gather during a sit-in at the parliament building, amid political crisis in Baghdad, Iraq.
 

Iraq’s stricken democracy is being stress-tested once again and the Iraqi population is paying the price. In the past weeks, supporters of Shi’ite leader Muqtada Al-Sadr have stormed the Iraqi parliament and staged a sit-in twice. Their protest thwarted the scheduled election of Mohammad Shia Al-Sudani as prime minister. Al-Sudani was nominated by the Shi-ite Coordination Framework, which brings together various groups and militias, with the exception of Al-Sadr’s party.
A political impasse has gripped Iraq since the election in October 2021, as fragmented, mainly Shi’ite forces have vied for influence. The party of Shi’ite cleric Al-Sadr emerged as the winner, with 73 out of the 329 seats, while two established Iran-backed Shia coalitions – the Fatah Alliance and the Al-Nasr Alliance – suffered major losses. After the election, Al-Sadr wanted to form a majority government in the shape of a triple alliance comprising his movement, the Sunni Taqaddum Coalition and the Kurdish KDP. The Shi’ite Coordination Framework, however, demanded the continuation of a unity government, which is common in Iraq, of which it would form part.
After they had failed to form a government the Sadr party MPs resigned. This left the ball in the Coordination Framework’s court. However, Sadr’s withdrawal from parliament is regarded as a strategic ploy in an effort to earn credibility as an alleged outsider against a corrupt political elite, enabling it to mobilise popular protests. Against this background the biggest demonstrations since the mass protests of October 2019, as well as the parliamentary sit-in are scarcely surprising.
No way around Al-Sadr
The current demonstrations are not personally linked to Al-Sudani. The Sadrists portray Al-Sudani as a puppet of Nouri Al-Maliki, leader of the State of Law Coalition and former prime minister from 2006 to 2014, although Iraq experts cast doubt on this. In any case, Al-Sudani, minister for human rights under Nouri Al-Maliki, would not be a bad choice in comparison with other potential candidates. In the wake of recent events, however, Al-Sudani doesn’t have much chance of assuming the premiership.
Potential scenarios range from new elections to the resumption of civil war.
There appears to be no route around populist king-maker Al-Sadr. On the one hand, he denounces corruption, mismanagement, and Iran’s sway over Iraq, but he’s hardly Mr Clean himself. His impulsiveness drastically limits Iraq’s options for peaceful and democratic solutions. This threatens to set in motion a spiral of escalation that has so far not cost any lives, but has already injured over 100 people on the side of the protesters and the security forces.
Potential scenarios range from new elections to the resumption of civil war. Two factors make the civil war scenario unlikely, however, at least for now. First, confronting one another here are groups of Iraqi Shia – Al-Sadr and the Shi’ite Coordination Framework – that, although at odds over Iran’s influence and the form of government, share religious views and are celebrating the holy month of Muḥarram. This is the first month of the Islamic calendar, in which Shi’ites mourn the family tragedy of Ḥusayn ibn ʿAlī. Going to war is forbidden during this period. Secondly, the actors in this power struggle are well aware that a civil war could diminish their share of power and curtail their ability to distribute largesse.
People’s trust in democracy is shaken
The main victims of this political blockade are democracy and the Iraqi people. In any case, the record low turnout of 43.5 per cent undermined parliamentary legitimacy. Even more so with the Sadrist MPs’ withdrawal from parliament, which now represents only a minority of the population. Popular trust in democracy was already badly shaken. From October to December 2019 the most violent mass protests since 2003 convulsed broad swathes of the country. Young Iraqis expressed their dismay at rampant corruption, paltry government services, high unemployment and the political system.
The protests were violently supressed by Iraqi security forces, leaving hundreds of protesters dead or injured. The core demands of the Tishreen (October) movement were fundamental reform of the political system (such as abolition of the so-called Muhasasa system, involving ethnic-religious quotas), and a new, non-corrupt government. Both demands remain largely unsatisfied. The Tishreen movement would thus have every reason to take to the streets again.
The longer the political blockade continues the more what remains of popular trust in democracy will diminish.
The movement is more fragmented than ever, however. Radical and religious forces have infiltrated the movement and have tried to impose their aims on it. Some have been co-opted by the government, while others have attached themselves to parties emerging from the protests. We can thus assume that the movement today has less mobilisation potential than hitherto.
The longer the political blockade continues the more what remains of popular trust in democracy will diminish. That reduces the chances of resolving the political crisis peacefully. We have seen over the years that the political elite is unable to manage a transformation of the existing system. More political participation among Iraqi citizens, such as in free and equal elections and pressure from the street could bring about the change long wished for. But to that end corrupt elites will have to cease clinging to power and pave the way for a democracy that is not just on paper, but is also lived.

HASSAN AL-MUSTAFA
August 07, 2022 – ArabNewws.com

Supporters of Muqtada Al-Sadr walk past his poster outside the Iraqi parliament, Baghdad, Aug. 6, 2022. (AP Photo)

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The leader of the Sadrist movement, Muqtada Al-Sadr, is apparently adamant about drawing a new political road map in Iraq, even if doing so requires him to rely on his wide popular base by directing his supporters who are sitting in and around the Iraqi parliament within the Green Zone.
The scenes conveyed by the media of the Sadr supporters as they were dancing in and roaming the halls of parliament showed the fragility of the political and security situation, as well as the fragility of a government that is unable to control security and enforce the rule of law. This is despite the efforts of Prime Minister Mustafa Al-Kadhimi, who has made serious efforts to limit the interventions of armed militias in government and to extend the authority of the state, which faces a very difficult test.
These demonstrations likely benefit two parties directly: The Sadrist movement and Al-Kadhimi.
The Sadrists have proved their undeniable popular power and that any attempt to form a new government that does not have their backing, or in which they do not participate, cannot succeed.
Al-Kadhimi is, to date, still an authority and a personality positioned in the center, seeking to manage a balance between the conflicting political currents by playing the role of arbitrator. This may increase his chances of obtaining a new mandate, especially as he has become a regionally respected figure and is backed by several influential Middle Eastern and Gulf countries, while leading dialogue between Saudi Arabia and Iran and working to consolidate Arab-Iraqi relations and reduce tensions in the region.
Al-Kadhimi has called on all parties to avoid any mutual accusations, indicating that the political forces should assume their national responsibilities and sit at the table of national dialogue. In a speech, he urged the Sadrist demonstrators to cooperate with the security forces and respect the state institutions, while calling on the security forces to defend public and private property and official institutions.
This message was positively received by the head of the Iraqi Victory Alliance, Haider Abadi, who tweeted that the PM’s statement “meets with our initiative and our invitations to dialogue in order to agree on a road map for the resolution of the current crisis.” He also appealed to all parties “to initiate serious and honest dialogues serving both the people and the state.”
Despite the flexibility shown by some Iraqi leaders in facing the crisis — including the head of the Fatah Alliance, Hadi Al-Amiri — Al-Sadr went further in his speech, stating his reservations toward negotiating with the Coordination Framework, saying: “The dialogue with them, as per our previous experiences, has brought nothing to the nation but corruption and dependency.” He pointed out that “there is no benefit to be expected in this dialogue, especially after the people expressed their free word,” demanding a “peaceful and democratic revolutionary process and early elections after dissolving the current parliament.”
Despite the constitutional difficulties, early elections are a step that many forces, which were negatively affected by the last poll’s results, would be willing to accept. But others, such as the State of Law Coalition, have reservations, reaching the extent of rejection, with its leader the former Prime Minister Nuri Al-Maliki commenting on Twitter: “Serious dialogue, which we hope will resolve differences and restore things to their rightful place, begin by a return to the constitution and by respecting the constitutional institutions.”
However, other Iraqi leaders announced their support for new elections. Al-Amiri issued a statement saying that his alliance supports the holding of early elections. He noted that the previous vote was marred by many suspicions and objections. The process needs “a comprehensive national dialogue in order to determine the elections’ date, mechanisms and requirements, in addition to providing an appropriate environment to hold honest, fair and transparent elections that would restore citizens’ confidence in the political process,” Al-Amiri added.
Abadi also welcomed Al-Sadr’s speech in which he called for new elections. The Victory Coalition leader said: “I salute his endeavors, as well as the efforts exerted by all our brothers to prevent bloodshed and achieve reform. I call on everyone to join hands to serve the people, reform the regime and strengthen the constitutional state through a sound and peaceful democratic process.”
The support Al-Sadr has received from such prominent political figures is amplified by popular support, as well as Al-Kadhimi’s desire to limit the authority of pro-Iranian armed militias. All of these factors may be in Al-Sadr’s favor, but it is a dangerous adventure that could explode at any time and lead to bloody confrontations between two sides, each having its own weapons, funding and mass support.
Al-Sadr’s desire for early elections is a dangerous adventure that could explode at any time.
Hassan Al-Mustafa

Al-Sadr is seeking to confront the chaos stirred up by Al-Maliki with counter-chaos, to enshrine the equation of power struggle and brinkmanship.
The scene of demonstrators occupying parliament is chaotic and illegal. All parties in Iraq violate the law and resort to popular power, the use of arms or the power of playing with organizational regulations in order to monopolize the government. Unless Iraq’s political leaders emerge from the cycle of power struggle, respect the rule of law and recognize clear constitutional mechanisms, the country will be threatened by further chaos and violence. Chaos and violence are strongly rejected by the Iraqi people and do not serve the interests of the Gulf countries that want a strong and stable system in Iraq that is capable of enforcing security and law.

Hassan Al-Mustafa is a Saudi writer and researcher interested in Islamic movements, the development of religious discourse and the relationship between the Gulf Cooperation Council states and Iran. Twitter: @Halmustafa

Supporters of Iraqi Shia cleric Muqtada al-Sadr gather in Baghdad’s Tahrir square on July 27, 2022 to protest against the nomination of Mohammed Shia al-Sudani for the prime minister position. (AFP) Reuters and Alarabiya News

Published: 10 August ,2022: 06:12 PM GSTU pdated: 10 August ,2022: 07:01 PM GST

Iraqi Shia cleric Muqtada al-Sadr called on the country’s judiciary to dissolve the parliament by end of next week, he said in a statement on Wednesday.
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The judiciary “must dissolve parliament by the end of next week… if not, the revolutionaries will take another stance,” al-Sadr said in a statement on his Twitter account, without elaborating.
Al-Sadr has called for early elections and unspecified changes to the constitution after withdrawing his lawmakers from parliament in June.
The withdrawal was a protest against his failure to form a government despite holding nearly a quarter of parliament and having enough allies to make up more than half the chamber.
Protesters rallied by al-Sadr and his Sadrist Movement tore down concrete barriers and entered the Green Zone, which houses government departments and foreign missions, before breaking into parliament last month.
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